AIADMK ahead in TN, Cong leads in Andhra

Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are two southern states that had turned the tide against an over-confident National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 2004 Lok Sabha Elections. A neck-and-neck fight between United Progressive Allinace (UPA) and third parties looks like the most possible scenario in the 2009 elections.

A Billion Votes focuses on the CNN-IBN-CSDS poll that explains how the two states will decide the fate of the 15th Lok Sabha.

On the panel of experts to discuss the survey were political columnist Kalyani Shankar, Bureau Chief of Vaartha R Rajagopalan, political commentator Dr V Krishna Ananth and political analyst Dr K Nageshwar.

Tamil Nadu: All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) has the momentum

Massive swing in favour of AIADMK
Party	2006	2007	2009
DMK	26	26	28
AIADMK	16	18	28
Others	48	56	44
Note: All figures in per cent.

• A Billion Votes: How Andhra, TN will vote in '09

Rajagopalan began the debate by saying, "DMK (Dravida Munnettra Kazhagam) will lose because of not handling the Sri Lankan issue properly. Secondly, there is no governance in Tamil Nadu. And that is reflecting in your poll too."

Compared to 2006 AIADMK is gaining…………
Caste/community-wise swings for…
Upper caste	+35
Nadars	+17
Vanniyars	+33
Women	+13
Muslims	+10
Note: All figures in per cent.

Traditionally, Tamil Nadu is all about alliances. The poll shows that while there is a dead heat between the DMK and the AIADMK, 13 per cent are with the Congress. There is also the PMK (Pattali Makkal Katchi) which is as of now with the DMK alliance. So Chief Minister M Karunanidhi maybe down, but he is not out.

Alliance crucial in a fragmented scenerio
Party	Vote share
DMK	28
AIADMK	28
Congress	13
DMDK	9
BJP	6
PMK	4
Left	3
MDMK	1
Others	8
Note: All figures in per cent.

"I agree but at the same time arithmetic matters more in elections. This has been proved in Tamil Nadu for the past two or three times. When Jayalalithaa got the number of allies, she got the maximum number of seats," Shankar said.

The panelists agreed that whoever gets the bigger alliance will have the advantage even now in Tamil Nadu, particularly the party which is with the Congress. Traditionally, a Dravida party plus Congress has been the beneficiary in Tamil Nadu.

Complete schedule of Lok Sabha elections

The Election Commission has staggered voting in Jammu and Kashmir and Uttar Pradesh over five phases while Bihar will have a four-phase election.

Maharashtra and West Bengal will vote over three days and eight states - Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Madhya Prdesh, Manipur, Orissa and Punjab - will see two-day elections.

The remaining 15 states and seven Union Territories will hold vote on a single day.

Election dates and states:

Phase One April16: Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Jammu and Kashmir, Kerala, Maharashtra, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Orissa, Uttar Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Lakshwadeep. March 23: Issue of notification. March 30: Last date of filing nominations. March 31: Scrutiny of nomination. April 2: Last date of withdrawal of nomination.

Phase Two (A) April 22: Manipur. March 28: Issue of notification. April 4: Last date of filing of nomination. April 6: Scrutiny of nomination. April 8: Last date of withdrawal of nomination.

Phase Two (B) April 23: Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Goa, Jammu and Kashmir, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Orissa, Tripura, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand. March 28: Issue of notification. April 4: Last date of filing of nomination. April 6: Scrutiny of nomination. April 8: Last date of withdrawal of nomination.

Phase Three April 30: Bihar, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Jammu and Kashmir, Gujarat, Sikkim, Dadar and Nagar Haveli, Daman and Diu.

Phase three (A): April 2: Issue of notification. April 9: Last date of nomination. April 11: Scrutiny of nomination. April 13: Last date of withdrawal of nomination.

Phase three (B): April 2: Issue of notification. April 9: Last date of nominations. April 10: Scrutiny of nomination. April 15: Last date of withdrawal of nomination.

Phase three (C): April 2: Issue of notification. April 9: Last date of nominations. April 10: Scrutiny of nomination. April 13: Last date of withdrawal of nomination.

Phase Four May 7: Bihar, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Delhi. April 11: Issue of notification. April 18: Last date of filing of nomination. April 20: Scrutiny of nomination. April 22: Last date of withdrawal of nomination.

Phase Five May 13: Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Uttarakhand, Chandigarh, Puducherry, Uttar Pradesh.

Phase Five (A): April 17: Issue of notification. April 24: Last date of filing of nomination. April 25: Scrutiny of nomination. April 27: Last date of withdrawal of nomination

Phase Five (B): April 17: Issue of notification. April 24: Last date of filing of nomination. April 25: Scrutiny of nomination. April 28: Last date of withdrawal of nomination.

Break up of seats: Phase One: 124. Phase Two: 141. Phase three: 107. Phase Four: 85. Phase Five: 86. Counting: May 16.

All election related procedures are to be completed before May 28.

Third Front confident of forming government

This groups calls itself the Third Front and believes that the next government may not be formed if all of them come together. Eight parties including the Left and three southern parties on Monday announced that they wouldn’t go with the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) or the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

From H D Dewe Gowda to Chandrababu Naidu to Jayalalithaa to Telengana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) and the Left; it is a group which has done business either with the Congress or the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the past. But, it is now rallying around an anti Congress and anti BJP stand.

“Next government will be a Third Front government,” says Chandrababu Naidu.

But who is going to be the leader of this group. Without a powerful player like Mayawati, the Third Front would resemble a still born child.

Just before last years trust vote on the nuclear deal the same players had come together in an unsuccessful bid to dislodge the UPA government. Then Mayawati was the prime ministerial candidate but this time she wants to go alone.

“We are all united in our attempts to provide a good government,” says Dewe Gowda.

This is the leader who is actually playing the Third Front card to its maximum advantage. Almost on a daily basis Sharad Pawar is threatening the Congress to fall in line and treat his party like an equal partner. He has one line open with the Shiv Sena and the other with Comrade Karat.

So for the time being the Third Front is looking like one bus with too many potential drivers.

BJP selects its poll issue: terrorism, Afzal Guru

The BJP on Saturday accused the Government of failing to secure the nation and alleged it was soft on terrorism.

LK Advani, the party’s prime ministerial candidate, indirectly accused the Congress-led government of endangering national security at the cost of vote bank politics.

Advani claimed the UPA Government was delaying hanging Afzal Guru, a terrorist awarded capital punishment for his role in the Parliament attack case, because he was a Muslim.

The terrorist has not been hanged because "his name happens to be Afzal Guru. Had he been some Anand Singh or Anand Mohan he would have been hanged," he said in Bangalore.

Advani claimed the common man’s security was a more important issue than unemployment and inflation and wanted India to follow a “zero-tolerance” policy against terrorism.

"Al-qaeda has not been able to carry out any terror attack in the US and Israel post-9/11 strikes as the governments of both the countries adopted a zero-tolerance policy towards terrorism," said Advani at an awareness campaign against terrorism conducted by Karnataka’s higher education department.

He claimed the UPA government had taken a "U-turn on all issues relating to terrorism", citing its decision to scrap POTA, the security law enacted by the previous NDA administration.

Earlier in the day, BJP general secretary Arun Jaitley, had accused the government of making India a soft state.

"UPA has made India into a soft state. India from a booming economy is now in a disarray as far as economy is concerned. India as a nation is an insecure nation. It is a naive foreign policy where in you seriously think Pakistan is giving you information. Pakistan's best front... non-state actors are doing it and we cannot help it. And our Prime Minister has already given Pakistan a certificate saying like us poor Pakistan is also a victiom of terrorism," he said in Mumbai.

Diptosh Majumdar, CNN-IBN’s National Affairs Editor, says the BJP’s emphasis on terrorism is a planned move. The party emphasised on terrorism during the five-state elections last year but it didn’t bring it results.

The Congress returned to power in Delhi though elections in the city were held just after the Mumbai terrorist attacks in November. The BJP tried to speak of the economy and inflation for a while but now has returned to its core issue.

Pak Navy chief eats his words on 26/11, Kasab

Pakistan’s navy chief on Saturday tried to calm the controversy created by his statement on the Mumbai terrorist attacks and said his intention was not to contradict his government.

Admiral Noman Bashir told at a press conference in Islamabad on Friday that Ajmal Amir Kasab, the lone terrorist captured for the Mumbai attacks, didn't take the sea route to the Indian city.

On Saturday, he clarified his statement and said the Pakistan Navy didn’t have the authority to speak about the investigation into the Mumbai attacks.

"We have not been directly involved in the investigation, which is under the domain of the Interior Ministry. Therefore they are better equipped, they have better knowledge and information," said Bashir.

"We have no contradictory opinion on the report prepared by them. Whatever evidence they have is correct. I won't contradict it," Admiral Bashir said.

The Admiral admitted that Pakistan’s Interior Ministry, which is investigating the attacks, may have evidence that Kasab used the sea to reach Mumbai.

India on Saturday dismissed Bashir’s contention that the terrorists did not use the sea to enter Mumbai, saying "thorough investigations" had proved that the men did take that route.

Speaking at a function at the Cochin Shipyard Ltd (CSL), Defence Minister A K Antony said: "After the 26/11 incident, our agencies have done thorough investigations and come to the conclusion that the attackers had come through the sea route."

Indian Navy chief Admiral Sureesh Mehta reiterated the point at the same function: "We all know our investigating agencies are competent and have provided excellent documents that this (the arrival of the attackers) has happened over the sea route."

BJP edges Congress in cyberspace poll campaign

In what promises to be a keen electoral contest to determine who rules India, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has already taken an early lead over the Congress -- in cyberspace warfare.

With general elections involving some 700 million voters only two months away, the BJP - perhaps taking a leaf from the Barack Obama style of campaigning - is targeting voters who are mostly young and net savvy.

"Advani for prime minister" is the theme of five campaigns by the BJP on more than 2,000 websites, including those of the US, British and Pakistani media which Indians often frequent.

Prodyut Bora, convenor of the BJP's IT cell, said: "We are the leaders in the use of Internet for elections."

So far there has been no similar effort from the Congress. But the party has shown it can use the Internet if it wishes.

In the Rajasthan assembly contest late last year, it launched an Internet campaign with video ads.

To go with the web ads, Advani, 81, has started a blog -- the first senior Indian politician to do so.

On January 7, he wrote: "My young colleagues who created this website told me that a political portal without a blog is like a letter without a signature. I am excited by the idea of using the Internet for the election campaign."

But the question remains - will the Internet campaign bring in the votes?

V K Malhotra, the BJP's chief ministerial candidate in Delhi last year, launched a website to woo voters. It did not help. Incumbent Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit of the Congress won again.

Arun Kumar of the School of Social Sciences in New Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) says the BJP campaign is unlikely to help it garner too many votes because "Internet-savvy people are a small portion of the population".

According to him, what really matters are face-to-face interactions based on issues that matter to the people. Similarly, he says, the lack of an Internet campaign is unlikely to harm the Congress.

All major parties such as the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M), Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) have their official websites.

The CPI-M website has comments on a whole range of issues.

On the coming Lok Sabha polls, it says: "The party should conduct a vigorous political campaign in the run up to the Lok Sabha polls.

We should call for the defeat of the BJP and the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) to ensure that the communal forces are kept out of power at the centre.

The campaign should attack the UPA (United Progressive Alliance) government's anti-people economic policies.

The Left parties, along with the secular parties, should work together to make a non-Congress, non-BJP alternative realisable."

The Samajwadi Party's official website says: "This website aims to communicate with the masses and let people understand the party better. As time changes, technology changes; Samajwadi Party believes in staying up to date with technology and using it for betterment."

The website of Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar's NCP welcomes visitors to "join our cause and make a difference".

Navneet Kaushal, founder CEO of Page Traffic, told IANS: "Political parties have been using online media since 2003. The online Congress campaign in the last state elections showed it can gather a momentum of its own.

However, Advani's campaign is the first of its kind on a national scale and borrows heavily from Barack Obama's style. We will have to see if it connects with the Indian people."

Dipankar Gupta, also of the School of Social Sciences in JNU, says: "The Congress seems to think there is not much advantage to be had by going for an Obama-style Internet campaign.

The BJP campaign is unlikely to help it secure too many votes, just as it is unlikely that Congress's prospects will be harmed as most real voters don't surf the Internet."

Pakistan heading for unfortunate situation: Nawaz

Opposition leader Nawaz Sharif has blamed the Pakistan government for the political turmoil in the country set off by a court order barring him from elected office and warned Islamic extremists could exploit the unrest.

Sharif, in his first interview since the ruling on Wednesday, accused President Asif Ali Zardari of "declaring martial law on democracy," a charge echoing the complaints that forced former military ruler Pervez Musharraf to give up the presidency last year.

Sharif's interview with The Associated Press on Friday came amid a surge of political squabbling that is sure to distract the government of this nuclear-armed country from grappling with the Taliban and al-Qaida threat spreading from the tribal areas along the frontier with Afghanistan.

Pakistan also is in the middle of a tense time with neighboring India over the deadly militant attack on Mumbai, and Sharif said Zardari's pro-Western government isn't going to be able to face any of its key tasks if it continues to wage political war on him.

"It cannot concentrate on the very big issues we are confronted with," he said. "We have issues going on in the tribal area, we have this big issue in the Swat area, and we have a very ugly situation on our eastern border after the Bombay (Mumbai) killings."

The political uproar set off by the court ruling against Sharif is lining up influential civic groups led by disgruntled lawyers with Sharif's increasingly popular Pakistan Muslim League against Zardari. It's a confrontation that will also feed worries about military intervention, a frequent result of political turmoil in Pakistan.

"I think we are heading for some sort of unfortunate situation," Sharif said at his villa near Lahore, without elaborating. "There are a lot of forces — the militants, the extremists — they are all there to take advantage."

The Supreme Court ruling upheld a ban on Sharif from contesting elections because of a past criminal conviction related to the 1999 military coup that ended his second term as prime minister and put Musharraf in power.

Sharif's brother also was disqualified from continuing as head of the provincial government in Punjab, the nation's biggest and most populous region. Zardari ousted the government there and installed a loyalist as governor.