AIADMK ahead in TN, Cong leads in Andhra

Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are two southern states that had turned the tide against an over-confident National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 2004 Lok Sabha Elections. A neck-and-neck fight between United Progressive Allinace (UPA) and third parties looks like the most possible scenario in the 2009 elections.

A Billion Votes focuses on the CNN-IBN-CSDS poll that explains how the two states will decide the fate of the 15th Lok Sabha.

On the panel of experts to discuss the survey were political columnist Kalyani Shankar, Bureau Chief of Vaartha R Rajagopalan, political commentator Dr V Krishna Ananth and political analyst Dr K Nageshwar.

Tamil Nadu: All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) has the momentum

Massive swing in favour of AIADMK
Party	2006	2007	2009
DMK	26	26	28
AIADMK	16	18	28
Others	48	56	44
Note: All figures in per cent.

• A Billion Votes: How Andhra, TN will vote in '09

Rajagopalan began the debate by saying, "DMK (Dravida Munnettra Kazhagam) will lose because of not handling the Sri Lankan issue properly. Secondly, there is no governance in Tamil Nadu. And that is reflecting in your poll too."

Compared to 2006 AIADMK is gaining…………
Caste/community-wise swings for…
Upper caste	+35
Nadars	+17
Vanniyars	+33
Women	+13
Muslims	+10
Note: All figures in per cent.

Traditionally, Tamil Nadu is all about alliances. The poll shows that while there is a dead heat between the DMK and the AIADMK, 13 per cent are with the Congress. There is also the PMK (Pattali Makkal Katchi) which is as of now with the DMK alliance. So Chief Minister M Karunanidhi maybe down, but he is not out.

Alliance crucial in a fragmented scenerio
Party	Vote share
DMK	28
AIADMK	28
Congress	13
DMDK	9
BJP	6
PMK	4
Left	3
MDMK	1
Others	8
Note: All figures in per cent.

"I agree but at the same time arithmetic matters more in elections. This has been proved in Tamil Nadu for the past two or three times. When Jayalalithaa got the number of allies, she got the maximum number of seats," Shankar said.

The panelists agreed that whoever gets the bigger alliance will have the advantage even now in Tamil Nadu, particularly the party which is with the Congress. Traditionally, a Dravida party plus Congress has been the beneficiary in Tamil Nadu.